The President of the United States, Donald Trump, has repeatedly expressed his desire to "strike a deal" to end the war in Ukraine. His conversation with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and the anticipated meeting of American and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia this week have sparked hopes that the end of hostilities might be near.
The New York Times explored what the negotiations regarding Ukraine might lead to and who will be involved.
It is noted that Ukraine currently has limited options to reverse the recent successes of the occupiers on the battlefield. Therefore, it is likely that a deal will involve territorial concessions to Russia. The publication also believes that Putin will insist on a tough agreement.
The publication emphasized that Russia also has its own incentives for reaching a deal. In particular, economic issues, including the risk of massive inflation due to significant war expenditures. Additionally, signing a peace agreement could pave the way for Moscow to alleviate Western sanctions.
In any case, the negotiations are expected to be extremely challenging, according to the publication. Putin may negotiate in bad faith, and both Europe and Ukraine are concerned that Trump might seek to make a deal with the Kremlin over their heads.
The publication reminded that the previous U.S. administration led by Joe Biden aimed for the diplomatic isolation of Russia and stated that any negotiations regarding Ukraine's future should only involve Ukrainians. Trump, however, deviated from this approach when discussing the war in Ukraine with Putin during their phone call, and later promised to "inform" Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky about this dialogue.
Journalists added that under Trump, Ukraine could find itself isolated. Moreover, Zelensky mentioned that he was not invited to the negotiations taking place this week between senior aides of the U.S. President and their Russian counterparts in Saudi Arabia.
Furthermore, the American administration is attempting to "leave out" European countries. Trump wants the negotiations to involve only the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia, the publication stressed.
Territorial concessions may become the most contentious issue in the upcoming negotiations, journalists believe. Ukraine has stated that it will never recognize any changes to its borders, while Russia persistently claims parts of the country's territories.
The publication considers that one probable scenario could be a freezing of the war. In this case, Russia would maintain control over the territories it has already captured but would cease its efforts to gain new ones. Ukraine and the West would not officially recognize the Russian annexation, although Russia would retain its broader territorial claims.
According to journalists, such an agreement might stipulate that territorial disputes will be resolved peacefully at some point in the future.
The main leverage for Ukraine against Russia could be the captured lands in the Kursk region, the publication added. The Kremlin has stated that Kyiv will not be able to use these territories as bargaining chips, but this could change.
Security guarantees for Ukraine are also a crucial aspect of the future negotiations, the publication noted. Kyiv seeks NATO membership, but Moscow opposes this. Therefore, as a compromise, Ukraine might be offered the opportunity to join the European Union but not the Alliance.
The publication recalled that Zelensky proposed that if Ukraine is not admitted to NATO, 200,000 foreign peacekeepers should be sent to the country to help ensure a ceasefire. Analysts believe that the West is not capable of sending such a number of troops.
In addition, Russia also seeks security guarantees. The publication pointed out that Moscow wants to limit the size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and ban the presence of foreign troops in the country.
The publication also highlighted that Putin has stated that he started the war not only because of Ukraine but also to compel the West to "accept a new security architecture in Europe." This may indicate that Moscow could put forth demands that extend far beyond the fate of Ukraine itself.
Europe will be concerned about a possible Russian demand to reduce NATO troop numbers in the region, as this would increase the risk of a Russian invasion of Poland and the Baltics. Nonetheless, Trump might agree to this, the publication emphasized.
Moreover, in 2022, Russians demanded that Ukraine make the Russian language official and prohibit naming streets and cities after Ukrainian independence fighters. The publication believes that these issues are likely to be raised again.
Negotiations to End the War in Ukraine - Important News
Earlier, the editor-in-chief of Euractiv, Matthew Karnitschnig, explained why Europe will not be involved in the negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. It is noted that Europe wants to be part of the negotiation process, but there is one "but."
Additionally, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio clarified whether negotiations have already begun to end the war. According to him, the seriousness of Russian President Vladimir Putin's intentions to end the war will be determined in the coming weeks.