U.S. President Donald Trump has tasked special representative for Ukraine, Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, with ending the war in Ukraine with Russia within one hundred days. However, very few believe he will succeed—especially the Russians. According to The Wall Street Journal, Kellogg's role as a special envoy for Ukraine is more of a "starting gambit" in the peace negotiations that Trump intends to oversee personally.
As Trump's envoy to Ukraine, Kellogg will advise him on negotiation matters, but it is not clear that Trump actually needs advice. John Bolton, the former White House national security advisor, stated that he once heard Trump say he liked Kellogg because he "never shares his opinion unless I ask him."
At the same time, former colleagues say that Kellogg's military experience may be important for Trump as he weighs the implications of extending or withholding aid to Ukraine. However, Kellogg has never worked as a diplomat, and "if his experience in the White House says anything, he won't be involved in actual negotiations with Russia," they note.
"Trump enjoys his company and considers him a fiercely loyal guy, but he has never had any significant influence on policy... He certainly won't offer anything that deviates from what Trump has decided," said one former National Security Council staffer.
Bolton is concerned that in the upcoming negotiations, Trump may pressure Kyiv into making devastating concessions to Moscow, "because I think Putin knows how to play Trump," and Kellogg is unlikely to serve as a bulwark against Putin's influence.
"He will simply do what Trump tells him. He might protest, but Trump chose Kellogg not for his independent judgment," Bolton said.
Kellogg's former colleagues say he was appointed as the envoy to Ukraine based on a peace plan he proposed, which included significant criticism of the Biden administration. As a concession to Russia, the plan suggested postponing Ukraine's NATO membership and lifting some sanctions on Russia in exchange for a peace agreement.
Meanwhile, Russian media and Kremlin officials have reacted critically to both Kellogg and his peace plan.
Set Jones, a political scientist and defense expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, described Kellogg as a serious thinker whose presence in Trump's orbit should lend weight to the White House's decisions regarding Ukraine. However, he noted that the Kremlin's personal attacks on Kellogg and his plan do not bode well for any agreement.
"Negotiations haven't even started yet, and they are already targeting the main American involved in this," he said. "This does not contribute to negotiations or even a ceasefire."
Trump and the War in Ukraine
Earlier, Donald Trump stated that he would likely impose sanctions on Russia if Putin does not come to the negotiating table regarding Ukraine. According to Trump, he plans to meet with Putin, and preparations for the meeting are already underway.
He has also claimed that he will try to end the war in Ukraine "as quickly as possible."
At the same time, former U.S. special representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker believes that Putin will not agree to Trump's demand to end the war. After this, he said, Trump's team will realize they need to demonstrate strength.