The war in Ukraine is no longer at a standstill, as the Russian offensive gains momentum and pessimism increases in both Kyiv and Washington. According to the New York Times, the primary issue for Ukraine right now is the number of soldiers, as American military and intelligence officials believe that the available personnel will only suffice for 6 to a maximum of 12 months of warfare.
"The Ukrainian army is struggling to recruit soldiers and equip new units. The number of its soldiers killed in action is around 57,000. This is half of Russia's losses, but still significant for a much smaller country," the NYT reports.
Some American officials believe that if U.S. support for Ukraine remains strong until next summer, Kyiv may have the opportunity to exploit vulnerabilities and the anticipated shortage of soldiers and tanks in Russia.
Meanwhile, U.S. analysts claimed last summer that Russia was unlikely to achieve significant success in Ukraine in the coming months. However, this assessment has proven incorrect, according to the NYT. In October, Russia captured more territory in Ukraine than in any other month in the past two years and reclaimed over a third of the territory that Ukrainian forces had seized during an unexpected offensive in the Kursk region.
Currently, some American intelligence agencies and military officials are pessimistic about Ukraine's ability to halt the Russian advance.
"It's very tough on the front now," said Yevgeny Strokhan, a senior lieutenant and commander of a combat drone platoon in the 206th territorial defense battalion. "There's a lack of everything, too few people, more Russians, and they have more weapons."
Earlier this year, Ukrainian forces faced a shortage of ammunition due to delays in U.S. assistance. However, American military officials now state that weapon supplies are no longer Ukraine's main shortcoming; the biggest deficiency for Ukraine at this point is troops:
"According to one official's estimate, Ukraine has enough soldiers to fight for another six to 12 months. After that, he said, the country will face a severe shortage of personnel."
War in Ukraine - News
Recall that in September, the The Wall Street Journal reported that in a confidential Ukrainian assessment made earlier this year, the number of Ukrainian military casualties was estimated at 80,000 killed and 400,000 wounded. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky later refuted these figures, stating that the numbers are much lower.
On October 29, the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Oleksandr Litvinenko, announced plans to additionally mobilize 160,000 people in the country. According to him, this will allow military units to be staffed with personnel up to 85%.