Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities (UGS) are gradually approaching a filling level of 10%, at which point the design capacity for gas extraction will drop to 60 million cubic meters per day, reported former head of the Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU) Sergey Makogon on Facebook.
"This will mean that we won't be able to meet demand through domestic production and UGS, and we will need to urgently import gas," he wrote on Wednesday.
As Makogon noted, the average gas consumption in the country currently stands at 110 million cubic meters per day. Of this, 52 million cubic meters per day is produced domestically, while the remaining 58 million cubic meters must be supplied by UGS and/or imports.
"However, if there are frosts, consumption could rise to 140-150 million cubic meters per day, and the storage facilities will no longer be able to deliver the design capacities of 90-100 million cubic meters. Therefore, significant imports will be required at any cost," the former head added.
According to his information, starting in February, Naftogaz of Ukraine plans to begin importing gas. The company could purchase gas for import at $300-350 per 1,000 cubic meters in the summer of 2024, while currently, it will be buying at approximately $500-550 per 1,000 cubic meters.
"At the same time, Naftogaz spent over 13 billion UAH on gas purchases from private producers, which did not increase the gas in UGS but merely changed the ownership. With that amount, it could have bought 800-900 million cubic meters of imported gas in the summer," the former head emphasized.
As reported to the Interfax-Ukraine agency by Naftogaz of Ukraine, the company does not comment on the situation regarding potential imports for security reasons.
According to former Energy Minister Olga Buslavets, as of January 24, the total level of natural gas reserves in Ukrainian UGS was 8.5 billion cubic meters, including 4.7 billion cubic meters of so-called buffer gas, which is 24% lower than last year (considering 0.08 billion cubic meters of gas from non-residents).
As reported, in her Facebook post on December 31, the former minister assessed the gas reserves in UGS at the end of 2024 as not critical for passing the heating season due to reduced consumption. However, she noted that the risks of new missile strikes on infrastructure and additional demand for gas for power require additional insurance in the form of imports.
In turn, Makogon stated in December 2024 that it would be reasonable for Naftogaz of Ukraine to start importing natural gas in January 2025 to prevent additional triggering of gas storage facilities until the end of the winter months.
He predicted a possible increase in gas consumption this winter compared to the 2023-2024 heating season, particularly due to a rise in the share of gas generation, by 10% to 7.37 billion cubic meters. According to his calculations, at the same time, Ukrainian UGS will be able to provide access to 7.79 billion cubic meters of gas, which means Ukraine could exit the heating season with nearly empty UGS.